Kholoud Hussein 

Launched in April 2016 under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and King Salman, Vision 2030 has reshaped Saudi Arabia’s economy, society, and international positioning. As of early 2025, the Kingdom has already surpassed many of its key targets:

• 93% of its nearly 400 third-level KPIs have been fully or partially met. 
• Over 85% of its 1,500+ strategic initiatives have been completed or are on track.

The non-oil economy now contributes around 45–50% of GDP, tourism visitor numbers have already exceeded 100 million annually, and female labour-force participation has reached ~33%—beating the 30% goal.

However, with 2030 deadlines looming, attention is turning to the next chapter: What lies beyond Vision 2030?

1. Why Saudi Arabia Must Look Beyond 2030

A. Surpassing the Finish Line, Not Crossing It

With high-level projects nearing completion (NEOM, the Red Sea resorts, Diriyah Gate) and many social reforms embedded in the system, Saudi Arabia now faces the question: How to sustain and build on this progress?

A recent Stratfor analysis addresses this: “As the finish line for Vision 2030 approaches... Saudi Arabia is paring back its ambitious megacity NEOM… focusing on successful reforms that have strengthened its diversification away from oil.”

This isn't abandonment, but rather a strategic reorientation: embed gains and recalibrate the most significant initiatives to ensure their viability.

B. Global Shocks and Domestic Realities

Geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices still shape the economic environment. Although non-oil growth has been robust (with real GDP growth projections of 4–4.6% in 2024–25), continued resilience requires adaptive economic and social frameworks beyond 2030.

2. Emerging Pillars of the Post-2030 Strategy

A. Institutionalizing Sustainability & Governance

Saudi authorities have prioritized sustainability and transparency—not merely through grand visions, but via process. The Saudi Green Initiative (massive afforestation, emissions cuts) is poised to continue as an ongoing environmental policy beyond 2030. Likewise, improvements in e-governance, fiscal discipline, and public-sector accountability (pillars of “Ambitious Nation”) are now being entrenched in long-term reforms.

B. Deepening Economic Diversification

• Manufacturing & Industry: Efforts to localize oil sector value-added (from 40% to 75%) signal broader industrial policy that must continue beyond 2030.
• Finance & Capital Markets: The Financial Sector Development Program, launched under Vision 2030, aims to reinforce Saudi Arabia as a global financial hub—a task set to continue in the next decade.
• Renewable Energy & Green Tech: From Sakaka solar and Dumat al Jandal wind farms, the next step involves scaling hydrogen, green ammonia, carbon capture, and R&D tied to the Supreme Committee on RDI.

C. Human Capital & Innovation

Efforts to elevate Saudis in STEM, entrepreneurship, and global competitiveness reflect a shift from infrastructure-focused investment to talent-driven transformation. The Kingdom aims to channel 2.5% of GDP into research by 2040. Saudi universities and incubators (e.g., KAUST, SDAIA) are already positioned as keystones for this ambition.

3. Voices from the Kingdom

Busra Karacadag, OBG’s Country Director, framed the broader narrative: “This report captures Saudi Arabia’s bold strides in diversification, sustainability and global collaboration. Vision 2030 is a testament to the Kingdom’s resilience and capacity to lead on the international stage.” 

While Oliver Cornock, OBG’s Editor-in-Chief, conveyed: “Saudi Arabia’s focus on innovation and long‑term economic planning is helping to create a dynamic, future‑ready economy.” 

Both underscore that the real test will be maintaining this momentum after the headline-making projects conclude.

Similarly, Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Minister of Tourism, and Fahad bin Abdurrahman Al-Jalajel, Minister of Health, emphasize infrastructure-led sustainability. Their stewardship is shaping a post-2030 environment grounded in healthcare resiliency, affordable housing, and tourism capacity, not just new investments.

4. Post-2030 Scenarios: What Could Come Next?

A. Transitioning to Vision 2040 or Vision 2050?

Given the success and nearing sunset of Vision 2030, it’s likely the Kingdom will launch a successor strategic framework—tentatively called Vision 2040 or Vision 2050—aimed at embedding earlier gains and tackling residual structural vulnerabilities.

Key areas:

1. Industrial Upgradation: Shift from manufacturing assembly to high-value, tech‑enabled production; e.g., smart vehicles, biotech, pharmaceuticals.
2. Energy Transition: From solar/wind to hydrogen-exporting, carbon-negative energy ecosystems.
3. Financial Ecosystem: Expansion through FinTech innovation, Islamic finance, and integration with global capital flows.
4. Human Sciences and Culture: Zoom in on R&D capacity, cultural exports, tourism beyond mega-sites.

B. Governance as Strategy

Saudi Arabia’s leap from wholesale reform to institutional maturity implies post‑2030 governance models with decentralized accountability, data-driven policymaking, community engagement, and digital transparency—all sustained through refreshed bureaucratic capabilities.

C. Global Engagement and Soft Power

Already during its G20 presidency and sporting diplomacy, Saudi Arabia has used culture and commerce to amplify its global voice. Post-2030 plans will likely expand on educational exchanges, cultural IP exports, Saudi-backed global universities, and multilateral peace/sustainability agendas.

5. Risks and Challenges Ahead

Despite its achievements, the Kingdom faces real challenges:

• Megaproject Sustainability: Scaling back NEOM or similar projects could disappoint investors, thus requiring recalibrated expectations and management frameworks.
• Oil Dependency Residuals: While non-oil GDP has grown, oil exports still finance public services and deficits. External shocks remain a key vulnerability.
• Youth Expectations and Social Balance: A young, digitally-native population demands further widening liberties, robust social contracts, and inclusive civic platforms.

The next strategic blueprint must squarely address these through economic resilience, a balanced social compact, and long-tail institutional endurance.

6. Blueprint for a Post-2030 Saudi Arabia

Here is a thematic breakdown of what Vision 2040 (tentative) might entail:

From Vision to Legacy

Vision 2030 has already reshaped Saudi Arabia’s economic structure, societal values, global posture, and timeline. As 2030 approaches, the Kingdom's challenge shifts from execution to sustainability, adaptation, and continuous renewal. A successor strategy—Vision 2040 or Vision 2050—will likely carry forward this spirit, reinforcing resilience, institutional maturity, and global soft power.

The next Saudi decade must reconcile grand transformation with durable governance. Will its institutions mature enough to absorb this change? Will its citizens sustain this reform?

In the following years, Riyadh must answer these fundamental questions. The success of Vision 2030 opens this critical chapter, and the real test now lies after the finish line.

Ghada Ismail

In this final chapter of our series on why businesses don’t survive their first year, we tackle two of the most insidious threats to early-stage startups: legal pitfalls and founder burnout. These aren’t just external factors that can derail your business; they’re intertwined challenges that can quickly spiral out of control. As a founder, the pressure can feel unrelenting. You're juggling everything from contracts to customer acquisition, but when things go wrong on the legal front, the weight can become overwhelming. And without the right support, founder burnout can lead to decisions that hurt the very business you're working so hard to build. In this episode, we’ll explore how these two factors interact and, ultimately, how you can avoid them to ensure your startup doesn’t become another statistic.

Legal Pitfalls: The Invisible Landmines

When you're building a startup, it's easy to get caught up in the excitement of growth, customer acquisition, and fundraising. However, failing to set up proper legal structures can leave your business vulnerable to serious risks. A lack of legal protection can lead to costly lawsuits, compliance issues, or intellectual property disputes that can drain your resources and time.

Common Legal Pitfalls to Avoid:

1. Unclear Business Structure
   Whether you're running a sole proprietorship, partnership, or corporation, choosing the right legal structure for your startup is crucial. The wrong choice can result in personal liability, higher taxes, or complications in raising funding.
2. Intellectual Property Oversights
   Failing to protect your ideas, products, or branding can expose your business to infringement lawsuits or loss of competitive advantage. Registering trademarks and patents early is key.
3. Weak Contracts
   Not having solid contracts in place with suppliers, partners, and employees can lead to misunderstandings and legal disputes. Whether it's unclear terms or missing clauses, weak contracts are a silent killer.
4. Regulatory Compliance
   Startups often overlook industry-specific regulations or fail to stay compliant with changing laws. Failing to adhere to tax laws, labor laws, or environmental regulations can lead to penalties, fines, and damage to your reputation.

The Impact of Legal Pitfalls on Founders: When legal issues arise, founders are forced to deal with complex challenges that divert their focus from scaling their business. This leads to stress, confusion, and ultimately burnout.

Founder Burnout: The Invisible Cost of Stress

Founder burnout is one of the most dangerous threats to a startup’s survival, yet it often goes unnoticed until it’s too late. The emotional and mental strain of leading a startup is immense, and when combined with the legal challenges mentioned above, it can overwhelm even the most resilient entrepreneurs.

How Burnout Creeps In:

1. The Weight of Responsibility
   As the face of your startup, you are responsible for its success or failure. The pressure to be constantly available, make critical decisions, and handle every challenge personally can be exhausting.
2. Emotional Fatigue
   Constantly battling for survival, handling stress, and facing uncertainty can lead to emotional exhaustion. Over time, this emotional toll can make it hard to stay motivated, focused, or inspired.
3. Physical Toll
   The long hours, sleepless nights, and constant stress can lead to physical symptoms like fatigue, headaches, and even more serious health issues. This impacts not only your personal well-being but your ability to lead the company effectively.

The Interconnection: Legal Stress + Founder Burnout
Legal challenges are a major stressor that can lead directly to burnout. When founders are forced to deal with lawsuits, compliance issues, or poorly structured business models, the emotional and mental strain can reach a breaking point. Over time, this makes it harder to focus on the bigger picture and move the business forward.

How Legal and Emotional Struggles Combine to Sink Startups

While legal mistakes and burnout may seem like separate issues, they often go hand in hand. A founder who is burned out may fail to recognize the importance of proper legal protections, or they may delay addressing legal issues, making them worse over time. Conversely, ongoing legal battles can add to the stress and create a toxic environment for the founders.

The Vicious Cycle:

• Legal troubles create stress, leading to emotional exhaustion.
• Emotional exhaustion impairs decision-making, resulting in further legal and business mistakes.
• Over time, this leads to a lack of motivation and focus, which affects the company’s performance, making survival less likely.

Avoiding Legal Pitfalls and Founder Burnout

To prevent these issues from sinking your startup, here are some practical steps you can take:

1. Set Up Proper Legal Frameworks Early
   • Choose the right business structure, register your IP, and draft strong contracts with legal counsel.
   • Stay on top of regulations that apply to your industry to avoid fines and penalties.
2. Delegate and Build a Strong Team
   • Don’t try to do everything yourself. Surround yourself with a team you trust to handle specific aspects of the business, including legal matters.
   • Bring in specialists who can help with legal tasks, financial management, and marketing to ease the burden on yourself.
3. Focus on Mental Health
   • Schedule regular breaks and make time for self-care. Burnout happens when founders feel like they’re constantly on the go without any relief.
   • Develop a support system—mentors, advisors, or a network of peers who can help guide you through tough times.
4. Recognize When to Seek Help
   • If legal challenges or burnout are becoming overwhelming, seek professional help. Lawyers, accountants, and mental health professionals can help you navigate these issues before they spiral out of control.

Conclusion: The Road to Startup Success—A Final Word for Entrepreneurs

As we wrap up this series on the top reasons why startups fail in their first year, one key theme emerges: building a successful startup is as much about resilience and adaptability as it is about innovation and strategy. Every founder’s journey is filled with challenges, and it’s not always the mistakes you make that determine your success but how you respond to them.

The First Year is Crucial
In the early stages of your business, you’re navigating uncharted waters. You may not have all the answers, and you may face obstacles that seem insurmountable. But as we’ve discussed, the most common pitfalls—whether it’s running out of cash, failing to adapt to market demands, poor leadership, or legal missteps—are not insurmountable if you tackle them head-on with the right mindset. The key is preparation and awareness. Take the time to build a strong foundation—financially, legally, and operationally—so that when the storms hit, your ship can stay afloat.

Founder Resilience is Key
It’s easy to underestimate the toll entrepreneurship can take on you personally. Founder burnout is real, and it's a major reason why startups falter. But it’s important to remember that you are the backbone of your company. Your well-being—mentally, physically, and emotionally—should never be neglected. Don’t be afraid to ask for help, whether it’s from a mentor, a partner, or even a therapist. Building a network of support is not just a luxury, it’s essential for long-term sustainability.

Build for the Long-Term
Every decision you make in your first year impacts the longevity of your business. Think beyond immediate goals and focus on building systems, processes, and relationships that will last. The choices you make about your team, your legal framework, and your product offerings should align with your vision for the future. This means sometimes sacrificing short-term gains for long-term growth. Don’t rush the process; building a business takes time, and success doesn’t happen overnight.

Learn from Every Failure
No one gets it right all the time, and failure is an inevitable part of entrepreneurship. But failure doesn’t mean the end of the road; it’s simply a lesson in disguise. Be willing to learn from your mistakes, adapt, and pivot when necessary. The most successful entrepreneurs are those who understand that failure isn’t the opposite of success; it’s a part of it.

Focus on the Bigger Picture
Finally, always keep your eye on the bigger picture. Start with purpose. Know why you’re doing this and who you’re doing it for. Your mission should be the driving force behind every decision you make. Whether it’s delivering a product that changes lives or building a company that reflects your values, remember that the road to success isn’t just about profits; it’s about making an impact.

As you step forward in your entrepreneurial journey, remember this: The first year is just the beginning. The challenges you face will shape you into a stronger leader, a more resilient founder, and a wiser entrepreneur. So stay focused, be patient, and never stop learning.

Your journey has just begun, and the best is yet to come.

Ghada Ismail

A groundbreaking idea, strong financial backing, and an eager market may seem like the perfect formula for startup success. Yet beneath these promising elements lies a crucial factor that determines whether a startup thrives or fails: the people driving it.

Leadership and team dynamics are the unseen forces that shape every decision, process, and relationship within a company. Founders who build cohesive teams and embrace effective leadership practices create environments where innovation flourishes and employees remain motivated. Conversely, startups plagued by leadership conflicts, misaligned visions, or toxic work cultures risk collapse even when their products or services show great potential.

How Leadership and Team Issues Emerge

Problems often arise when founders struggle to define roles, align visions, or manage conflicts. Leadership inexperience can lead to poor decision-making, unclear communication, or a failure to set realistic goals. Similarly, weak team cohesion may result in internal friction, disengagement, or frequent turnover.

Research by CB Insights shows that 23% of startups fail due to team issues, including leadership conflicts and skill gaps. A startup with two co-founders, for example, may face tensions if one envisions aggressive growth while the other prefers a more conservative pace. Without alignment, this disconnect can ripple through the entire company, affecting strategic direction and morale.

A study by Harvard Business Review found that startups with clearly defined leadership roles and well-structured teams are 2.3 times more likely to scale successfully. Meanwhile, fragmented teams often suffer from duplicated efforts, miscommunication, and wasted resources, ultimately slowing growth.

Key Strategies to Build a Stronger Leadership and Team Foundation

1. Establish Clear Roles and Responsibilities: Define leadership roles early and ensure each leader understands their scope. This reduces overlap and confusion. Founders should align on decision-making authority and areas of accountability to minimize power struggles.
2. Prioritize Communication: Regular team check-ins, open dialogue, and transparent decision-making help prevent misunderstandings and keep teams aligned. Successful startups often implement structured communication routines such as weekly stand-ups, performance reviews, and team-wide updates to ensure alignment.
3. Invest in Leadership Development: Even experienced founders can benefit from mentorship, coaching, or management training to strengthen their leadership skills. Programs like Endeavor Saudi Arabia provide guidance to founders, helping them refine their leadership approach.
4. Build a Collaborative Culture: Encourage teamwork through shared goals, team-building activities, and a supportive environment where ideas are valued. Studies by the Institute for Corporate Productivity (i4cp) have shown that companies that actively promote collaboration are five times more likely to be high-performing.
5. Address Conflict Early: Tensions are inevitable, but unresolved disputes can fester. Creating a structured process for resolving conflicts ensures issues are managed before they escalate. Conflict resolution frameworks like the "Radical Candor" approach encourage open yet empathetic conversations to resolve friction productively.

The Radical Candor is a communication framework developed by Kim Scott, designed to help leaders give feedback that is both direct and caring. The concept encourages managers to challenge their team members while simultaneously showing they care about them personally. The framework is built on two key dimensions:

• Care Personally: Building strong relationships by genuinely caring about your colleagues as individuals.
• Challenge Directly: Offering clear, honest, and sometimes tough feedback that helps people improve.

The Power of Strong Leadership and Teamwork

Startups that cultivate clear leadership structures and foster a united team are far better equipped to handle the pressures of early-stage growth. Research by McKinsey & Company shows that companies with effective leadership teams are 1.9 times more likely to achieve above-average financial performance, emphasizing the value of well-managed teams.

In the unpredictable world of entrepreneurship, strong leadership, and cohesive teams are not just assets, they're essential for survival. Up next, we'll explore how ignoring customer feedback can silently sabotage even the most promising startups. Stay Tuned!

Ghada Ismail

Getting your pricing right is one of the toughest calls a founder has to make and it can make or break your business. Set the price too high, and you risk pushing customers away. Go too low, and you may struggle to cover costs or risk being seen as cheap. Finding that sweet spot is crucial, yet many startups stumble here.

The Danger of Overpricing

Overpricing can easily turn potential customers away. If people feel your product isn’t worth the price, they’ll look elsewhere. This is especially risky for startups trying to build a customer base. Higher prices can also raise expectations, and if your product or service doesn’t exceed those expectations, it can hurt your brand.

One common mistake is pricing based solely on costs without considering the customer's perception of value. Customers don’t just evaluate the price; they weigh it against what they believe they’re getting in return. Overpricing without adding value can leave your business looking out of touch. 

The Pitfalls of Underpricing

On the other side, pricing too low can backfire. While it might seem like a great way to win customers early on, underpricing can leave you with little margins or even losses. Worse still, customers might assume your product isn’t up to par. And once you've set those low prices, bumping them up later without upsetting loyal customers can be tricky.

Underpricing can also create a perception problem. Customers may wonder, "Why is this so cheap?" and assume it lacks quality or staying power. For instance, a bakery pricing its cakes below market rates may attract bargain hunters but struggle to establish itself as a premium dessert destination.

Finding the Sweet Spot

The key to good pricing is understanding your costs, knowing your market, and figuring out what customers are willing to pay. Many successful startups use a value-based pricing model, which ties your price to the perceived benefits your product offers. This strategy can help position your offering as worth the investment without scaring off price-conscious buyers.

Market research is crucial here. Founders should analyze competitors, survey potential customers, and study buying behaviors to gauge what their audience is willing to pay. Testing different price points or offering tiered options can also provide insights into what drives sales without scaring off leads. This means creating multiple pricing plans or packages that cater to different customer needs and budgets. For example, a SaaS startup might offer:

Basic Plan: A lower-cost option with essential features for entry-level users.

Standard Plan: A mid-tier package with additional features for growing businesses.

Premium Plan: A higher-priced option with advanced features, dedicated support, or exclusive perks.

This strategy allows customers to choose what best fits their needs, while giving your business opportunities to upsell as users grow or require more value. Tiered pricing is common in tech, subscription services, and even physical products with 'starter,' 'pro,' or 'deluxe' options.

Testing and Adapting

Pricing isn’t something you set and forget. Early-stage businesses should experiment with different pricing models, keep an eye on customer reactions, and adjust accordingly. Special offers, discounts, or premium tiers can help you figure out what resonates best with your audience.

Many successful startups approach pricing as an ongoing process. They gather customer feedback, analyze trends, and adjust their prices when necessary. Some introduce loyalty programs or bundle offers to increase perceived value without directly raising prices. By staying flexible and responsive, startups can adjust their pricing over time.

Wrapping things up…

Pricing mistakes are common, but they’re fixable. By staying tuned into customer feedback and making thoughtful adjustments, you can find a price point that reflects your product’s value and keeps your business sustainable. But even with great pricing, poor execution can derail everything. In the next episode, we'll dive into how operational chaos can drag startups down and what founders can do to keep things running smoothly.

Kholoud Hussein 

In the dynamic landscape of startups, legal and compliance services play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of emerging businesses. These services not only safeguard startups from potential legal pitfalls but also enhance their credibility among investors, partners, and customers. As part of our series, "Building Blocks of Startup Success: The Industries Powering Innovation," this article delves into the profound impact of legal and compliance services on startups, supported by recent statistics and insights from Saudi business owners.

The Crucial Role of Legal and Compliance Services

Legal and compliance services encompass a broad spectrum of activities designed to ensure that businesses operate within the boundaries of the law. For startups, these services are integral in establishing a solid foundation, mitigating risks, and fostering sustainable growth. Key areas include:

• Business Formation and Structuring: Selecting the appropriate legal structure (e.g., sole proprietorship, partnership, LLC) is fundamental, as it influences taxation, liability, and regulatory obligations.
• Regulatory Compliance: Adherence to industry-specific regulations is essential to avoid legal repercussions and maintain operational legitimacy.
• Intellectual Property Protection: Safeguarding innovations, trademarks, and patents is vital for maintaining competitive advantage and preventing infringement disputes.
• Contract Management: Drafting and reviewing contracts with clients, suppliers, and employees to ensure clarity and enforceability.
• Employment Law: Complying with labor laws to foster fair workplace practices and prevent legal disputes.

Financial Implications of Compliance

Investing in legal and compliance services incurs costs; however, non-compliance can lead to far more substantial financial setbacks. A 2023 report by NorthRow highlighted that, on average, 25% of business revenue is allocated to compliance costs, with 18% of businesses estimating that over 50% of their revenue is dedicated to these expenses.

While these figures may seem significant, the cost of non-compliance—including fines, legal battles, and reputational damage—can be exponentially higher. However, companies that improved their internal controls experienced much lower borrowing costs, ranging between 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points, indicating a favorable cost-benefit balance. 

Legal Compliance in the Saudi Startup Ecosystem

Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 has catalyzed a burgeoning startup ecosystem, with legal and compliance services playing a critical role in this transformation. The Kingdom has introduced transformative regulations aimed at simplifying business processes, such as commercial registration and trade name management, making it more accessible for entrepreneurs to establish and operate businesses. 

The Saudi Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises General Authority, Monshaat, has been instrumental in fostering entrepreneurship by setting policies and organizing forums like Biban, which connect entrepreneurs, investors, and officials globally. The modernized regulatory landscape simplifies startup and venture capital operations, including a streamlined business registration process and the new Saudi Companies Law, effective January 2023. 

Insights from Saudi Business Leaders

Saudi business owners recognize the indispensable role of legal and compliance services in ensuring business continuity and success. Nasreen Alissa, founder of The Law Firm of Nasreen Alissa, emphasizes that compliance not only protects startups from legal risks and penalties but also builds their reputation and trustworthiness among customers, partners, and investors. 

Such insights underscore the consensus among Saudi entrepreneurs regarding the value of robust legal frameworks in fostering sustainable business growth.

Challenges and Considerations

Despite the clear benefits, startups often encounter challenges in implementing effective legal and compliance strategies:

• Resource Constraints: Allocating sufficient funds and personnel to manage compliance can be challenging for startups with limited resources.
• Complex Regulatory Landscapes: Navigating the intricate web of local and international regulations requires specialized knowledge and continuous updates.
• Rapid Technological Advancements: Keeping pace with evolving compliance requirements, especially in tech-centric industries, necessitates agility and adaptability.

To address these challenges, startups are increasingly leveraging technology. Artificial intelligence (AI) startups offer compliance software to help organizations manage new regulations efficiently and cost-effectively. While this technology can automate tasks like fraud reviews and data security reports, compliance executives remain cautious. Concerns include the potential for errors, lack of clear guidelines, and the effort required to implement AI. Despite some hesitancy, companies are largely moving forward with AI to model risk scenarios and automate repetitive tasks. 

Finally, legal and compliance services are foundational to the success and longevity of startups. They not only shield businesses from potential legal entanglements but also enhance credibility, attract investment, and facilitate sustainable growth. In the context of Saudi Arabia's evolving startup ecosystem, these services are indispensable in navigating the regulatory landscape and capitalizing on emerging opportunities. By prioritizing legal compliance, startups can build a resilient foundation, paving the way for innovation and long-term prosperity.

As we continue our series, "Building Blocks of Startup Success: The Industries Powering Innovation," our next installment will explore the significance of mentorship networks in guiding startups to success. These networks provide invaluable support, knowledge, and connections, enabling startups to navigate challenges and accelerate growth. Stay tuned as we delve into how mentorship fosters entrepreneurial success and contributes to a thriving startup ecosystem.

Ghada Ismail

Some startups fail because they run out of cash. Others fail before they even have a chance because their entire business model is flawed from the start.

It’s one of the most underestimated reasons businesses collapse in Year One: the core structure of how they plan to make money simply doesn’t work. You could have a product customers love, strong demand, and even solid marketing—but if your business model doesn’t add up, the math will always catch up with you. In this episode, we’re diving into how first-year startups unknowingly build on broken foundations—and how you can avoid the same fate.

What Exactly Is a Business Model?

Your business model is how your business makes money, the system that connects your product, your pricing, your customers, and your costs. It answers basic questions:

• Who is your customer?
• What problem are you solving?
• How do you deliver value?
• How do you make a profit doing it?

When these answers are vague, contradictory, or unrealistic, trouble follows.

The Classic Signs of a Flawed Business Model

Here’s how it shows up in real life:
- You attract lots of attention, but hardly anyone pays.
- Your pricing is too low to cover costs, or too high to attract your target market.
- You rely on a single revenue stream, with no backup if it dries up.

- Your model depends on endless growth to survive, instead of sustainable profit.
- Your customer acquisition cost (CAC) is higher than the revenue they bring in.

* Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) is basically how much money you spend to get one customer. It includes all the costs related to sales and marketing such as ads, social media campaigns, discounts, influencer deals, sales team salaries, and everything you do to attract and convert someone into a paying customer.

* Why does It Matter (Especially in Year One)?

If you’re spending SAR 30 to get each customer, but your average customer only spends SAR 25 with you, then you’re losing money on every sale. That’s why CAC is a vital metric in the first year, because a broken business model often hides behind unsustainable acquisition costs.

Why It Happens So Often in Year One

In the rush to launch, many founders copy models from other industries (without adapting them) or assume that the model will “figure itself out” once the product takes off. Others misread the market, building a pricing or revenue strategy based on assumptions instead of real data. The result? A product people love but a business that can’t survive.

Case Study Snapshot

Take the example of a food delivery startup that offered free delivery to attract customers. They gained thousands of users, but every order they delivered cost more than they earned. Their “growth-first, profits-later” model worked for larger companies with deep investor pockets, but it was a death sentence for a bootstrapped startup.

Fixing the Foundation: What Startups Should Do Instead

Here’s how first-year businesses can avoid this fate:
-Test the numbers before launch: Map out pricing, costs, and realistic sales volumes.
-Run small experiments: Try different revenue models (subscriptions, one-time sales, freemium) to see what fits best.
-Focus on profitability from the start: Growth without profit is a dangerous gamble in Year One.
-Diversify revenue streams: Don’t put all your hopes on one product, one customer type, or one sales channel.

Wrapping things up…

A great idea with a bad business model is like a house with no foundation; it might stand for a while but collapse is inevitable. Startups that survive their first year aren’t just product innovators, they’re rather business model builders.

The good news? First-year founders can fix this before it’s too late by treating the business model like a living blueprint that evolves with real data, not just assumptions.

But even a rock-solid business model can’t save you if no one knows your business exists. That’s exactly what we’ll cover in the coming episode: Marketing Failures—When Great Ideas Stay Invisible.

Ghada Ismail

Starting a business is an exhilarating journey filled with ambition, creativity, and high expectations. Entrepreneurs pour their hearts into developing products or services they believe will change the market. However, one of the most critical and often overlooked mistakes is launching without genuine market demand. 

No matter how innovative or well-crafted a solution is, if customers don’t need or want it, failure is almost inevitable. The harsh reality is that enthusiasm and effort alone do not guarantee success, as market validation is an essential factor. Without it, even groundbreaking ideas can fall flat, leaving startups struggling to gain traction and ultimately shutting down.

Understanding why businesses fail due to lack of demand, and how to properly validate an idea before launch, can be the difference between success and becoming another cautionary tale. This episode delves into the primary reasons businesses collapse without demand, and effective strategies for validation.

Why Businesses Fail Without Market Demand

Market demand is the foundation of any successful business. Without it, even the best ideas struggle to gain traction. Some of the key reasons businesses collapse due to lack of demand include:

• Misaligned Solutions: Startups often create solutions they assume customers need rather than addressing actual pain points.
• Poor Market Research: Many entrepreneurs skip rigorous validation, relying instead on personal intuition or biased feedback.
• Overestimation of Market Size: A niche idea might seem appealing but may not have a large enough audience to sustain profitability.
• Changing Consumer Preferences: A once-promising market can shift due to trends, new technology, or unforeseen external factors.

How to Validate an Idea Before Launching

Validating demand before investing time and resources can save a business from an early demise. Here’s how entrepreneurs can ensure their idea meets a real market need:

1. Customer Interviews & Surveys
   • Engage directly with potential customers to understand their challenges and willingness to pay for a solution, product, or a service.
2. Competitor Analysis
   • Assess existing players in the market. If no one is offering a similar solution, it could signal either an untapped opportunity or a lack of demand.
3. Minimum Viable Product (MVP) Testing
   • Launch a simple version of the product to gauge interest and refine based on user feedback.
4. Pre-Sales & Waitlists
   • Gauge real demand by getting early adopters to commit to a purchase before full development.
5. Market Trend Analysis
   • Use data and industry reports to assess if the market for the product is growing or declining.

Wrapping Things Up:

No market demand is one of the silent killers of businesses. Before launching, entrepreneurs must rigorously test their ideas, validate customer needs, and ensure their solution aligns with real market problems. By taking these precautions, businesses can avoid costly missteps and increase their chances of long-term success.

This marks the first episode of our series on ‘Why Startups Fail to Survive Year One. 

Stay tuned for the next installment, where we’ll explore another critical factor that leads to early-stage failure.

Noha Gad

The world’s population is expected to surpass 10 billion by 2050, creating an urgent need to increase food production by nearly 70% to meet growing demands. However, this challenge is compounded by shrinking arable land, limited water resources, and the unpredictable effects of climate change.

Traditional farming methods are no longer sufficient to address these challenges sustainably. This is where artificial intelligence (AI) steps in as a game-changer. By leveraging advanced technologies like machine learning, predictive analytics, and automation, AI has the potential to revolutionize agriculture, helping farmers produce more with fewer resources, reduce waste, and adapt to changing environmental conditions. 

Technology, particularly advanced tools like AI, IoT devices, and precision farming techniques, offers powerful solutions to these challenges. These tools provide smarter resource management, real-time monitoring, and predictive decision-making, empowering farmers to increase efficiency and create a more sustainable agricultural system. 

What is agricultural technology?

Agricultural technology (agritech) is the use of innovative tools, systems, and methodologies that apply cutting-edge technologies to enhance the efficiency, productivity, and sustainability of farming practices. 

It plays a transformative role in revolutionizing the sector by enabling smarter, data-driven decisions. Through tools like precision farming, farmers can analyze soil health, optimize irrigation, and apply fertilizers more accurately, leading to reduced waste and increased yields.

Additionally, IoT sensors and drones provide real-time insights into crop health, allowing early detection of pests or diseases and timely interventions. Meanwhile, automation, such as robotic harvesters and self-driving tractors, helps to address labor shortages while improving operational efficiency.

Agritech can also redefine the supply chain, ensuring traceability and reducing food waste through technologies like blockchain and predictive analytics. These innovations not only make farming more productive and sustainable but also help meet the global demand for food in an environmentally responsible way.

The role of AI in revolutionizing agritech

AI's ability to analyze vast amounts of data and deliver actionable insights can revolutionize the agritech sector, introducing smarter, more efficient, and sustainable solutions to traditional farming challenges. By leveraging machine learning, computer vision, robotics, and big data analytics, AI can transform every aspect of agriculture through:

• Precision farming: AI-powered systems analyze data from sensors, drones, and satellites to optimize irrigation, fertilization, and pest control.
• Crop monitoring and disease detection: Computer vision and machine learning models process real-time imagery from drones or cameras to identify early signs of disease, pest infestations, or nutrient deficiencies.
• Autonomous machinery: AI-based self-driving tractors, robotic harvesters, and automated irrigation systems can reduce labor dependency and increase efficiency.
• Supply chain optimization: AI helps streamline the agricultural supply chain by predicting demand, minimizing food waste, and ensuring traceability.
• Predictive analytics: AI analyzes historical and real-time data on weather patterns, soil health, and market trends to forecast yields, predict pest outbreaks, and plan planting schedules. This helps farmers mitigate risks and make informed decisions.

Additionally, AI models can stimulate the effects of climate change on crops, helping farmers adapt by choosing the right seeds, planting strategies, and technologies to sustain production in extreme conditions.

Challenges and Concerns 

Despite the immense potential of AI in agriculture, its adoption comes with significant challenges and concerns that cannot be overlooked. From issues of affordability and accessibility to ethical dilemmas and data security risks, these hurdles highlight the complexities of integrating technology into traditional farming systems.

Finally, the integration of AI into agriculture is not just a technological shift, it is a revolution that holds the potential to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. From enhancing productivity and sustainability to enabling climate-resilient farming, AI is transforming how food is grown, harvested, and delivered to consumers. As we look to the future, the promise of AI in agriculture lies in its ability to balance the demands of feeding a growing population with the urgent need to protect our planet.