• Health insurance to capture more than 60% of the Saudi insurance market by 2030
• Unprecedented growth in Saudi insurance… market to surpass SAR 129 billion in six years
• Bupa Arabia: Digital transformation is shaping the future of health insurance in the Kingdom
• Bupa Arabia: Health insurance covers 13.2 million members and gears up for Vision 2030 growth

Riyadh - Sharikat Mubasher: A specialized report has projected that Saudi Arabia’s insurance sector will witness unprecedented growth in the coming years, with gross written premiums (GWP) rising from SAR 75.9 billion in 2024 to more than SAR 129 billion by 2030. The surge is expected to be driven by several economic and regulatory factors, foremost among them the expansion of health insurance, which currently represents 55% of the market. Health insurance premiums are projected to nearly double from SAR 42 billion to SAR 83 billion.

The report highlights that this growth reflects fundamental shifts in the sector under Vision 2030 programs, regulatory reforms, healthcare infrastructure expansion, accelerating digital transformation, and the increasing number of insured individuals, along with stricter oversight measures such as enforcement initiatives.

Insurance Acceleration

According to the Saudi Insurance Sector Review 2024 by Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance, the local market has more than tripled in size over the past decade, growing from SAR 21.3 billion in 2012 to SAR 75.9 billion in 2024.

The most significant transformation, however, came after the COVID-19 pandemic, which pushed insurers to adopt digital platforms and new regulatory solutions such as the InsurTech Sandbox, Nafis platform, and the “Virtual Hospital.” These measures enabled the sector to overcome the crisis, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22%. This raises the key question: will the market sustain this momentum, or will growth slow down?

Growth Drivers

The report identifies several key drivers shaping the future of the industry, most notably Vision 2030, which is channeling over SAR 1 trillion in investments into healthcare, infrastructure, and digital transformation. This creates vast opportunities for the insurance sector to diversify its offerings.

Connected medicine (telehealth) is emerging as a cornerstone of this transformation, expanding access to healthcare, reducing costs, and enhancing patient experience through solutions such as remote care, automated claims processing, and advanced digital portals.

On the regulatory side, stricter oversight has expanded mandatory coverage to new segments, including domestic workers and gig economy participants, potentially adding SAR 9.4 billion in GWP.

Tourism Revenues

Tourism is another growth factor, expected to generate an additional SAR 4.5 billion in insurance premiums as the Kingdom targets 150 million annual visitors by 2030, up from more than 100 million in 2023.

At the same time, Riyadh’s urban boom—driven by mega-projects such as Mall of Saudi, The New Murabba, and King Salman Energy City—is boosting demand for insurance products and services, positioning the capital as the new growth hub for the sector.

Healthcare Challenges

Despite the positive outlook, the report warns of challenges that could hinder sustainable growth in the health insurance market. Chief among them is medical inflation, which is outpacing global averages due to expanded health benefits and reliance on advanced technologies—raising service costs and straining insurers’ ability to manage expenses.

The report also points out regulatory compliance gaps, with portions of the private sector workforce and their families still uninsured. Meanwhile, smaller companies face difficulties keeping up with digital transformation and compliance requirements, which may consolidate market power in the hands of larger players.

Market Resilience

Nevertheless, the market has demonstrated strong resilience despite the pressures from VAT implementation and dependent fees during 2020–2021. It recovered to reach a record 12.1 million insured individuals in 2023, followed by a further increase of 1.2 million, bringing the total to 13.2 million in 2024. Expanding coverage to include domestic workers, tourists, and gig economy employees represents a significant opportunity to drive market growth and enhance inclusivity in the years ahead.

Future Scenarios

Using advanced statistical models such as Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing, the report outlines two main scenarios for the future of health insurance in Saudi Arabia.

Baseline scenario: The number of insured individuals is expected to rise to around 15 million by 2030, with health premiums reaching SAR 65.2 billion, reflecting steady growth aligned with healthcare sector expansion and digital transformation in medical services.

Regulatory expansion scenario: If stricter regulations extend mandatory coverage to groups like domestic workers, health insurance premiums could soar to SAR 83 billion by 2030, enhancing inclusivity and strengthening the healthcare system.

Sustainable Growth

Commenting on the report, Nadeem Shahzad Director Customer & Market Insights at Bupa Arabia, said:

“The Saudi health insurance market is experiencing substantial expansion driven by Vision 2030, which has laid a solid foundation for growth. The combination of strict regulations and effective supervision ensures that this momentum translates into sustainable growth, while digital transformation opens vast opportunities to innovate and enhance customer services.”

He added: “Medical data has become the new currency of the healthcare era. It is the foundation for developing more accurate and effective services. Value-based care remains the best way to address medical inflation challenges and improve service quality, ensuring the sector’s sustainability and maximizing its contribution to the national economy.”

Insurance Maturity

The report concludes that the coming years will see increasing maturity in the Saudi insurance market, driven by digital transformation, the expansion of connected medicine, adoption of value-based care models, and stronger public-private sector integration in healthcare development.

Through its Bupa CareConnect platform, Bupa Arabia continues to redefine healthcare by leveraging digital innovation, artificial intelligence, and preventive programs—affirming that the future of insurance will be built on innovation, compliance, and human-centered care.