Kholoud Hussein 

The global space economy reached $464 billion in 2022 and is forecast to grow to $738 billion by 2030, according to the Space Foundation. Saudi Arabia, under its ambitious Vision 2030, is now positioning itself as a new powerhouse in this domain.

“Space is no longer just the domain of superpowers. Saudi Arabia sees it as a platform to localize high-value industries, inspire innovation, and create a new economy,” says Mohammed Al-Tamimi, CEO of the Saudi Space Agency (SSA).

The Kingdom’s strategy is clear: nurture a domestic space ecosystem, attract foreign investors, and become a regional hub for research, satellite tech, and even space tourism.

Institutional Foundations: Strategic Architecture Behind the Lift-off

The establishment of the Saudi Space Commission in 2018 (now the Saudi Space Agency) marked a pivotal moment. Its leadership under Minister Abdullah Alswaha and Al-Tamimi signaled a top-down national commitment.

In July 2023, Saudi Arabia signed a cooperation agreement with NASA, further reinforcing its international positioning. Minister Alswaha described it as “a step forward in building strategic partnerships that accelerate our national innovation capabilities and diversify the Kingdom’s global collaborations.”

Supporting the SSA’s efforts is the Communications, Space and Technology Commission (CST), which sets regulatory frameworks and promotes commercial activity in space. CST has launched multiple market intelligence reports identifying five opportunity clusters: satellite manufacturing, launch services, ground infrastructure, satellite communications, and earth observation.

Private Sector & Startup Surge: The Commercial Engine of Saudi Space

• Accelerators, Startups, and R&D

Saudi Arabia is not building a space sector from scratch — it is nurturing one through accelerators, R&D hubs, and university-led innovation.

In 2023, the SSA partnered with Techstars to run a 10-week accelerator. Frank Salzgeber, former head of innovation at the European Space Agency and advisor to the program, said: “There was never a better time and place to join the space industry than Saudi Arabia. By 2030, the Kingdom will be a major hub for commercial space activity.”

Meanwhile, Neo Space Group (NSG), launched by the Public Investment Fund (PIF) in 2024, focuses on satellite communications, remote sensing, and IoT — all areas ripe for private-sector development.

Other rising players include SARsatX, backed by Flat6Labs, which is building earth observation services using micro-satellites, and Orbit Arabia, a startup in early-stage development focused on space-based logistics.

Huda AlMansoori, co-founder of a Riyadh-based space tech incubator, notes: “The talent is there — our challenge is channeling it into deep-tech ventures, and that’s where university and government partnerships are crucial.”

• University Partnerships

Saudi universities like KAUST, KACST, and King Saud University are driving innovation. A joint nanosatellite launched with Spire Global and KAUST in 2023 via SpaceX marked a breakthrough for local research.

These institutions serve as feeders to the startup ecosystem and provide technical backstopping for early-stage ventures.

Investment Landscape & Economic Potential

Saudi Arabia’s space sector is rapidly emerging as an investment frontier, backed by a convergence of national policy, global market trends, and the rising appetite for high-tech infrastructure. While still in early formation, the Kingdom’s space investment landscape is evolving from state-led vision to private sector opportunity, one with the potential to generate multi-billion-riyal returns, catalyze regional leadership, and embed the country in the global space economy.

1. Public Capital as a Strategic Engine

The Kingdom’s space push is being powered initially by substantial government investment, driven primarily through the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Saudi Space Agency (SSA), and affiliated tech and industrial funds. These entities have committed billions of riyals to:

• Build and launch domestic satellites
• Fund advanced research and local manufacturing
• Develop a regulatory framework that supports commercial activity

For instance, the PIF-backed Neo Space Group, launched in 2024, is tasked with developing satellite communications networks, earth observation platforms, and data analytics systems to support sectors from agriculture to oil and gas.

This top-down model mirrors the early phases of national development in other strategic sectors like renewable energy and advanced manufacturing. The goal is to de-risk early-stage infrastructure, create sovereign capabilities, and set the foundation for a thriving commercial market.

“We’re not just financing projects. We’re building a full ecosystem that can compete globally,” said Alswaha, Minister of Communications and Information Technology.

2. Growing Private Sector Momentum

While still nascent, the private sector is beginning to show signs of traction. Many early-stage Saudi startups are entering the space value chain, particularly in:

• CubeSat design and nano-satellite systems
• Downstream applications such as geospatial analytics, weather monitoring, and remote sensing
• Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity from low Earth orbit (LEO)

Notable players include:

• LeoTech Space, working on CubeSat hardware and educational payloads
• OrbitX, developing data processing tools for environmental monitoring
• SkyNode, a startup using satellite imagery for infrastructure and utility mapping

Although these companies remain in the seed and Series A stage, some have begun attracting capital from local VCs like Khwarizmi Ventures, Riyadh Valley Company, and Seedford Partners, as well as from international players scouting the region’s underexploited potential.

“We see space tech in Saudi as where fintech was 10 years ago — high risk, but massive upside,” said a partner at a Jeddah-based venture fund. “With the right exits, this could be one of the region’s most valuable verticals.”

3. FDI and Global Partnerships on the Rise

Saudi Arabia is also positioning itself as an attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) in space, thanks to regulatory reforms, tax incentives, and a clear roadmap outlined by the National Space Strategy.

In 2024 alone, the Kingdom signed over 15 MoUs and joint ventures with international space agencies, aerospace manufacturers, and satellite operators. These include:

• A strategic agreement with Thales Alenia Space for satellite development
• Collaboration with OneWeb and Eutelsat to extend broadband coverage
• Technology transfer partnerships with Chinese and Indian satellite firms

Foreign players are drawn to Saudi Arabia’s commitment to localization, its strong capital markets, and the possibility of using the Kingdom as a launchpad into broader MENA and African markets.

The Saudi Investment Promotion Authority has identified space technology as a “Tier-1 opportunity” for inbound FDI and is working with the Ministry of Investment (MISA) to develop customized incentives for international aerospace companies.

4. Dual-Use Applications Multiply ROI Potential

Space in Saudi Arabia is not just about launches and satellites — it’s about the data and services they enable. The real economic value will come from commercializing applications that serve other Vision 2030 sectors, including:

• Agritech: Monitoring crop health, soil conditions, and water usage from space
• Mining & Energy: Using satellite imagery to detect geological anomalies or monitor pipeline infrastructure
• Urban Planning: Assisting in NEOM and smart city development with geospatial planning tools
• Disaster Management: Supporting emergency response and early-warning systems for floods or heatwaves

This interconnectivity creates layered economic value and opens doors for cross-sector investment. A single satellite platform can serve dozens of public and private sector clients — from Aramco to the Ministry of Environment — dramatically improving ROI.

5. Unlocking Future Value Through Industrial Localization

Long-term, the Kingdom aims to localize critical parts of the aerospace supply chain, including satellite assembly, sensor manufacturing, launch support services, and space-grade materials. This would reduce reliance on imports, strengthen national security, and create thousands of high-skilled jobs.

Several initiatives are underway:

• Establishing a Space Industry Cluster in Riyadh and Taif
• Incentivizing aerospace manufacturing under Made in Saudi branding
• Training local engineers and technicians through public-private partnerships

These efforts reflect the broader Vision 2030 priority of building an innovation-driven, export-oriented industrial base, with space positioned as a high-impact sector.

Saudi Arabia’s space investment landscape is evolving rapidly — from public infrastructure and basic services to an increasingly diversified portfolio of startups, foreign partners, and commercial applications. While risks remain, the economic upside is undeniable: access to a trillion-dollar industry, increased strategic autonomy, and the development of deep-tech capabilities that can ripple across the economy.

As capital flows in and capabilities mature, Saudi Arabia is poised to shift from a buyer of space technology to a builder — and eventually, to a global exporter of space-enabled solutions.

Foreign Investment & International Partnerships

Saudi Arabia is actively courting foreign players. In 2024, Halo Space announced it would begin stratospheric balloon tourism flights from Saudi Arabia. The company estimates $600 million in revenue by 2030, with 400 flights annually priced at around $100,000 to $164,000 per ticket.

Carlos Mira, CEO of Halo Space, explained: “We chose Saudi Arabia because of the regulatory clarity, stable investment climate, and access to funding. Vision 2030 gives us confidence that the country is serious about space tourism.”

Major partnerships include:

• NASA: civil cooperation on exploration and R&D.
• Axiom Space: supported the Kingdom’s first astronaut mission in 2023.
• LeoLabs and NorthStar: helping monitor orbital debris and enhance satellite safety.
• SES and OneWeb JV: building LEO ground infrastructure in Tabuk.

NEOM, the $500 billion smart city project, is also hosting testbeds for space-tech experiments — including earth observation and atmospheric studies — in partnership with international space firms.

Strategic Fit with Vision 2030

Saudi Arabia’s foray into space is not an isolated ambition—it is a direct extension of Vision 2030, the Kingdom’s comprehensive roadmap to diversify its economy, reduce its reliance on oil, and position itself as a hub of innovation and global leadership. The development of the space sector serves as a strategic enabler across multiple Vision 2030 pillars, from economic diversification and digital transformation to education, defense, and global positioning.

1. Economic Diversification Beyond Oil

One of the central tenets of Vision 2030 is to shift Saudi Arabia's GDP composition away from hydrocarbons and toward high-tech industries and services. The global space economy, expected to surpass $1.8 trillion by 2035 according to McKinsey, offers a compelling opportunity for Saudi Arabia to tap into new revenue streams through:

• Satellite manufacturing
• Space-based data analytics
• Remote sensing for agriculture and infrastructure
• Telecommunications and broadband delivery in underserved regions

By investing in space infrastructure and commercial capabilities, the Kingdom is effectively planting the seeds of a post-oil innovation economy.

“Space is not just science—it’s strategy,” said Alswaha. “It drives solutions for water, food, security, and economic resilience. This is the heart of Vision 2030.”

2. A Catalyst for Innovation and Deep Tech

The space sector is inherently interdisciplinary, requiring advances in robotics, AI, cybersecurity, materials science, and energy systems. It therefore acts as a powerful catalyst for the Kingdom’s emerging deep tech ecosystem, sparking local innovation and forging partnerships between universities, research centers, and startups.

Institutions such as KAUST, KACST, and King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM) are already aligning their research agendas to support aerospace and space sciences. Programs under the Saudi Space Agency aim to connect academic R&D with real-world applications, ranging from satellite payload development to climate analytics powered by geospatial data.

The space sector also encourages technology transfer and local IP creation, crucial to the Kingdom’s long-term ambition of becoming a producer—not just a consumer—of advanced technologies.

3. Human Capital Development and Youth Empowerment

Vision 2030 places a strong emphasis on unlocking the potential of Saudi youth, and the space economy offers a new and inspiring domain for engagement. From astronaut programs and aerospace engineering scholarships to STEM bootcamps and space hackathons, there is a national push to nurture the next generation of space scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs.

The recent participation of Saudi astronauts—Rayyanah Barnawi and Ali AlQarni—on international space missions has ignited public interest and served as powerful symbols of national capability and aspiration.

“Our children need to see that science is a path to the stars—not just something in books,” said Badr Al-Aiban, Advisor at the Royal Court. “Space inspires curiosity, and curiosity builds capability.”

By 2030, Saudi Arabia aims to have trained thousands of specialists in aerospace and satellite sciences, and introduce space-focused curricula across major universities and vocational programs.

4. Enhancing National Security and Sovereignty

Space plays a growing role in geopolitical competitiveness and strategic autonomy, especially in areas like secure communications, border surveillance, and cyber defense. Vision 2030 underscores the need for Saudi Arabia to reduce dependency on foreign systems and develop sovereign technological capabilities.

With the development of localized satellite infrastructure, encrypted data networks, and dual-use payloads, the space sector strengthens national resilience and empowers local decision-making in crisis management, environmental monitoring, and defense logistics.

The National Space Strategy, approved by the Council of Ministers, outlines specific goals to enhance security-related capabilities through indigenous satellite constellations and enhanced partnerships with friendly powers.

5. Global Branding and Soft Power

Participation in the space economy elevates Saudi Arabia’s image as a modern, forward-thinking nation committed to scientific advancement, global cooperation, and peaceful space exploration. This aligns with Vision 2030’s ambition to position the Kingdom as a thought leader on the international stage—not only economically, but scientifically and diplomatically.

Through strategic cooperation with agencies such as NASA, Roscosmos, the European Space Agency, and the Chinese National Space Administration, as well as through its contributions to global forums like the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), Saudi Arabia is cultivating a new dimension of foreign policy and soft power.

These initiatives also help attract foreign direct investment (FDI), joint ventures, and technology partnerships—all critical to the success of Vision 2030.

In essence, space is not a detour from Saudi Arabia’s development priorities—it is a powerful multiplier. It fuses the knowledge economy with security interests, the tech sector with youth empowerment, and the national identity with global influence.

As Vision 2030 progresses into its critical execution phase, the integration of space into the Kingdom’s economic DNA is no longer speculative—it’s strategic. And if successful, it will mark a historic leap not only for Saudi Arabia, but for the entire region’s place in the space economy.

VII. Talent Development: The Human Capital Frontier

A sustainable space economy requires skilled engineers, astrophysicists, designers, and entrepreneurs.

In 2023, Serco Middle East launched its first space graduate program in Riyadh. Amar Vora, Serco’s director of space strategy, explained: “To address Saudi Arabia’s ambitions, the need for space skills and talent is going to be absolutely critical.”

Initiatives like SSA’s Ajyal program and KAUST’s satellite fellowships are designed to build a national talent pipeline. The participation of Rayyanah Barnawi — the first Saudi female astronaut — in a 2023 Axiom mission has inspired a surge of interest in STEM education.

Challenges on the Launchpad

Despite its ambitious trajectory and strong top-down support, Saudi Arabia’s space sector faces a number of structural, operational, and strategic challenges that could slow its momentum if not addressed holistically.

1. Talent Gaps: Bridging the Skills Deficit

One of the most critical bottlenecks is the shortage of specialized talent. While Saudi Arabia has made progress in encouraging STEM education and developing astronaut programs like Ajyal, the domestic workforce still lacks mid- to senior-level experts in critical areas such as orbital mechanics, propulsion systems, satellite software, and deep-space mission design.

This issue is compounded by global competition for space professionals, especially with countries like the UAE, India, and the US scaling their space ambitions. According to a 2023 report by the OECD on space workforce development, countries that lead in space tech invest heavily in long-term STEM capacity building and have well-established university-to-lab-to-startup pipelines — a model still in its early stages in Saudi Arabia.

“There’s a perception gap,” said a senior space researcher at KAUST. “We have many science graduates, but few with actual mission experience or specialized postdocs in astrodynamics or payload engineering.”

Without a broad base of engineers, scientists, and commercial space strategists, Saudi Arabia may struggle to build an autonomous space industry capable of scaling or sustaining high-tech operations without foreign support.

2. Overreliance on Government Funding

While state-led investment has been essential in kickstarting the ecosystem, Saudi Arabia’s space sector remains disproportionately dependent on public capital, especially from the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and other state-affiliated vehicles. This limits the diversity of innovation, slows down market responsiveness, and creates fragility if government priorities shift.

As of mid-2024, more than 80% of all major space-related funding in Saudi Arabia was sourced from public entities. Venture capital participation remains limited and risk-averse, with few dedicated space investment funds (Seedford Partners being a notable exception).

Unlike the U.S., where NASA’s role is largely to enable and regulate while commercial players like SpaceX, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab compete for contracts, Saudi Arabia’s current structure is still heavily top-down.

“We need to shift from a government-sponsored vision to a market-driven one,” noted a Riyadh-based space entrepreneur. “Otherwise, we risk building a showcase sector rather than a competitive one.”

3. Regulatory Maturity and Commercial Readiness

Although the Communications, Space & Technology Commission (CST) has made strides in launching licensing frameworks, spectrum management policies, and space debris protocols, Saudi Arabia’s regulatory environment is still evolving and not yet at par with global commercial benchmarks.

Startups report lengthy timelines to secure launch permissions, spectrum allocations, or import/export licenses for satellite components. Additionally, the lack of local manufacturing standards and IP enforcement mechanisms poses risks for high-tech investors.

In a region with growing geopolitical complexity, export control laws, dual-use technology regulations, and data sovereignty policies must be carefully developed to attract long-term partners and comply with global norms such as those set by the ITU and UN COPUOS.

“The legal infrastructure is being built, but it must be faster and clearer,” said an executive from a European satellite firm working in the Kingdom. “Foreign investors need certainty, especially in a high-stakes field like space.”

4. Long Time Horizons and Uncertain Commercial Returns

Space, by nature, is a long-game sector. Building a sustainable business case often requires years of R&D, launch testing, and orbit validation, followed by more time before profitability is achieved. For most early-stage investors, this presents an unattractive risk profile.

In the Saudi context, where startup ecosystems are still maturing and exits are limited, the lack of near-term commercial wins may disincentivize private capital unless accompanied by patient co-investment structures or government-backed guarantees.

Moreover, venture capitalists often lack the technical due diligence capabilities to evaluate space startups — a gap that could be addressed through education, advisory boards, or specialist fund-of-fund mechanisms.

5. Regional & Global Competition

Saudi Arabia is not alone in its ambitions. The UAE, Israel, Turkey, and Egypt are all investing in space technology and are further along in areas such as satellite imaging, data services, or launch capabilities. These countries have also built strong bilateral ties with key partners like NASA, the European Space Agency, and private launch companies.

To stay competitive, Saudi Arabia must continue to differentiate itself — either by becoming the regional logistics and satellite ground hub, by localizing component manufacturing, or by offering globally competitive R&D incentives and workforce development programs.

Outlook to 2030: Orbiting Toward Opportunity

As Saudi Arabia accelerates its space ambitions, the road to 2030 presents not just symbolic milestones, but a tangible opportunity to transform its economic and technological trajectory. The Kingdom is no longer approaching the space economy as a prestige project—it is positioning it as a strategic growth engine embedded within national priorities.

1. Projected Market Size and Economic Contribution

According to a 2023 study by Euroconsult, the Middle East’s space economy could exceed $10 billion by 2030, with Saudi Arabia expected to claim 20–30% of that share if its current investment pace continues. This translates to a domestic space market of roughly $2–3.5 billion by the end of the decade, spanning satellite communications, imaging, data services, and emerging verticals like space-based IoT.

A 2024 white paper from the Saudi Space Agency (SSA) projects that space technologies could contribute 0.5% to the Kingdom’s GDP by 2030, alongside creating over 8,000 direct jobs and potentially 25,000 indirect jobs across supply chains and downstream services.

“We don’t see space as an isolated sector—it will empower other industries like agriculture, energy, logistics, and climate,” said Al-Tamimi, SSA’s CEO.

2. National Security & Sovereignty

By 2030, Saudi Arabia aims to achieve partial independence in satellite manufacturing, launch access, and data infrastructure. This autonomy is crucial not only for communications and earth observation, but also for national security, emergency response, and cyber resilience.

Efforts are already underway. The PIF’s Neo Space Group is building satellite ground stations and planning for a dedicated constellation to serve both civilian and strategic needs. Experts anticipate the development of dual-use satellite capabilities for border control, maritime monitoring, and disaster prediction.

As regional tensions and cybersecurity risks grow, space sovereignty will become a core tenet of national resilience—a perspective increasingly echoed by policymakers in Riyadh.

3. Becoming a Regional & Global Player

Saudi Arabia’s location gives it geopolitical and geographical advantages. Positioned between Europe, Africa, and Asia, it is ideally suited for:

• Hosting ground station infrastructure
• Supporting launch logistics in emerging spaceports (especially in Tabuk and Taif)
• Serving as a regulatory and financing hub for the regional space economy

By 2030, the Kingdom could play a similar role in the Middle East that Luxembourg or Singapore plays in Europe and Southeast Asia: a niche space economy leader, enabling international startups and established players to base operations, raise capital, and test innovations in a stable, business-friendly environment.

4. Tourism, Education, and Public Engagement

Space is also being used as a tool for soft power, inspiration, and tourism. With commercial stratospheric flights set to begin via Halo Space by 2026, Saudi Arabia could become the first country in the Middle East to offer space-adjacent tourism to the public, attracting high-net-worth visitors and scientific missions alike.

Educational institutions are expected to expand their aerospace engineering programs, and Saudi youth—especially women—are being actively encouraged to pursue STEM paths. The success of Rayyanah Barnawi, the first Saudi female astronaut, has already sparked significant interest in space among young Saudis.

“When children see someone from their own country go to space, they begin to imagine careers that once felt unreachable,” said Huda AlMansoori, co-founder of a Riyadh-based STEM nonprofit.

5. Long-Term Vision: Moonshots and Beyond

While most of the current investment is focused on near-Earth technologies—LEO satellites, data platforms, and earth observation—Saudi Arabia is not ruling out deep space collaboration. The SSA has publicly discussed interest in:

• Contributing to the moon and Mars missions via international partnerships
• Establishing a Saudi payload program aboard commercial or governmental spacecraft
• Participating in space mining dialogues, especially with countries like the U.S., Japan, and Luxembourg

By 2030, the Kingdom could feasibly become a co-sponsor of exploratory missions or a host for moon analog testing environments, leveraging its vast deserts and stable climate.

A Decade of Acceleration

Saudi Arabia’s space strategy is multi-layered and cross-sectoral. It intertwines national security, education, private sector development, and global influence. But the success of this strategy will hinge on a few key metrics:

• Successful commercial satellite deployment from locally-led entities
• A robust private investment ecosystem beyond state capital
• Clear regulatory pathways for international partnerships
• And a long-term talent development pipeline that ensures sustainability beyond 2030

“We are not in a race to the stars,” said Minister Abdullah Alswaha in a 2024 press statement. “We are building a platform that connects people, protects resources, and powers progress. Space is simply our next domain of growth.”

As the Kingdom enters the second half of Vision 2030, its space ambitions are no longer theoretical. They are grounded in infrastructure, capital, policy, and purpose, with clear momentum toward making Saudi Arabia not just a participant in the global space economy, but a leader in shaping its future.

To conclude, Saudi Arabia’s foray into space is more than a prestige play—it’s a strategic lever for economic diversification, tech independence, and global engagement. By 2030, the Kingdom aims to nurture a vibrant, sustainable space sector encompassing manufacturing, research, services, tourism, and data-driven industries.

The journey is ambitious. Critical will be continued investment, further private-sector development, scaled talent production, regulatory evolution, and guardrails for geopolitics. If the stars align, Saudi Arabia may well become the Arab world’s premier space economy, reshaping its global role and cementing the human capital and technological foundations of its post-oil future.

Noha Gad

In the high-stakes world of startups, where 90% of new ventures fail within the first few years, financial forecasting is not just a best practice; it is a lifeline. It is crucial for startups as it provides a clear roadmap for future growth by predicting revenues, expenses, and cash flows based on market trends and realistic assumptions.

Financial forecasting enables entrepreneurs to make informed decisions, allocate resources effectively, and manage cash flow, which is vital for survival in the early stages. Additionally, a well-prepared financial forecast builds investor confidence by demonstrating the startup’s potential for profitability and helps secure necessary funding.

Key components of startup financial forecasting

A well-prepared financial forecast typically includes the following elements: 

• Sales/revenue forecast.
• Expenses forecast.
• Cash flow projection.
• Profit and loss statement projection.
• Breakeven analysis.
• Balance sheet forecast.
• Market and pipeline analysis.

Why financial forecasting matters for startups

Financial forecasting is not about predicting the future perfectly; it is about creating a roadmap that helps startups navigate uncertainty, attract funding, and avoid fatal cash flow mistakes. Financial forecasting can help startups in:

• Investor confidence and fundraising. Investors and lenders demand data-driven clarity before committing capital. A well-structured forecast demonstrates market understanding, operational discipline, and scalability.
•  Cash flow survival. Startups fail because they run out of cash, not because they are unprofitable. Forecasting helps startups predict cash crunch periods, plan for contingencies, and align spending with milestones.
• Strategic decision-making. Financial forecasting enables startups in the pricing, hiring, and product development processes.
• Risk mitigation. Scenario planning, such as best-case or worst-case forecasts, prepares startups for economic downturns, supply chain disruptions, and competitive threats.

Consequences of poor financial forecasting

Poor financial forecasting in startups can have severe and wide-ranging consequences that threaten their survival and growth:

• Cash flow disruptions: Inaccurate forecasts can cause unexpected liquidity shortages or excess cash, forcing emergency borrowing at high interest rates or missed growth opportunities.
• Misallocation of resources: Startups may hire too many or too few employees, over-invest in equipment, or inefficiently allocate marketing budgets, leading to inflated costs and operational inefficiencies.
• Delayed strategic decisions: Lack of reliable forecasts causes hesitation in launching new products or entering markets.
• Regulatory and compliance risks: Inaccurate projections can lead to missed tax payments, non-compliance with debt covenants, fines, legal problems, and reputational damage.
• Over-optimistic revenue projections: Overestimating revenue growth creates false security, leading to overspending and negative cash flow, often resulting in financial distress.
• Lack of data and unrealistic assumptions: Startups frequently encounter difficulties in forecasting due to inadequate historical data, oversimplified growth assumptions, or a disregard for market realities, resulting in unreliable financial plans.
• Risk of running out of capital: Many startups fail within the first two years primarily due to poor financial management and running out of cash.

In conclusion, financial forecasting is an indispensable tool for startups navigating the precarious early stages of their journey. By providing a structured and realistic roadmap of revenues, expenses, and cash flows, it empowers entrepreneurs to make informed decisions, optimize resource allocation, and maintain vital cash flow. Beyond operational benefits, a well-crafted forecast builds investor confidence and enhances fundraising prospects, which are critical for startup survival and growth. On the other hand, poor financial forecasting can lead to cash shortages, misallocated resources, delayed strategic moves, and ultimately, business failure. For startups aiming to defy the odds, investing time and effort into accurate, data-driven financial forecasting is not optional; it is essential.

Ghada Ismail

Whether you're pitching to investors, testing a new idea, or planning your next big move, you’ve likely heard the terms TAM, SAM, and SOM thrown around. But what do they actually mean, and why do they matter?

In the startup world, these three acronyms help define market sizing, a critical part of understanding how big your opportunity really is. They show the difference between the total universe of potential customers… and the actual portion of the market you can realistically capture.

Still, many founders blur the lines between them, or worse, overestimate them entirely. That’s when problems start.

This article is your simple guide to what each term means, how to calculate them, and why getting them right can make or break your pitch.

Here’s a quick breakdown before we dive deeper:

• TAM (Total Addressable Market): The big picture. If everyone in the world who could possibly use your product actually did.
• SAM (Serviceable Available Market): The slice of that market you can realistically reach, given your current geography, business model, and product focus.
• SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): The smallest circle—this is your actual short-term target. Who can you win over now, with the team, resources, and time you currently have?

Understanding TAM/SAM/SOM helps you set realistic goals, speak the language of investors, and avoid the common trap of “wishful thinking” market sizing.

How to Calculate TAM, SAM, and SOM?

Let’s say you’re launching a food delivery app in Saudi Arabia that targets busy professionals in major cities. Here’s how you’d approach TAM, SAM, and SOM in simple terms:

1. TAM: Total Addressable Market

This is the maximum demand for your product if absolutely everyone who could use it did use it.

Example:
Imagine everyone in Saudi Arabia who orders food online is using your app. That’s your TAM. It’s the big-picture number that shows how massive the opportunity could be in a perfect world.

2. SAM: Serviceable Available Market

Now bring it down to what’s actually reachable based on your target cities, tech limitations, and business model.

Example:
You’re not launching nationwide—you’re starting in Riyadh and Jeddah. Plus, your app is only for smartphone users who pay digitally. So your SAM is just a portion of the TAM, filtered to reflect your true focus.

3. SOM: Serviceable Obtainable Market

This is where reality kicks in. Of all the people in your SAM, how many can you realistically reach in your first year, given your current team, budget, and marketing plan?

Example:
Let’s say you believe you can reach a few thousand loyal users and onboard a handful of restaurants in your launch cities. That small slice? That’s your SOM. It’s your starting point.

Think of it like this:

• TAM = Everyone who could ever use your product
• SAM = People you can realistically target
• SOM = People you’re likely to win over first

This breakdown keeps your expectations grounded and helps you grow with purpose, not just with ambition.

Conclusion: Know Your Market, Know Your Game

Understanding TAM, SAM, and SOM isn’t just for impressing investors; it’s for grounding your business in reality. These numbers help you think strategically about where to start, how to grow, and what your true potential looks like.

Think of it like this:

• TAM tells you how big the dream is.
• SAM tells you where to aim first.
• SOM tells you what you can realistically achieve right now.

For Saudi startups navigating a fast-evolving market, clarity is everything. Knowing your numbers gives you the edge, not just in fundraising, but in decision-making, prioritization, and focus.

So you’d better take the time to define your market the smart way, because in the world of startups, vague ambition never beats clear execution.

Ghada Ismail

PARAGON is rethinking what workspaces can be. With smart design, built-in services, and a strong focus on community, its developments go beyond real estate; they support how people actually work and grow. At the center of this vision is WORK IN, a ready-to-operate workspace model built for startups and SMEs in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital.

“We’re not just imagining that future—we’re building it,” says Ahmed Shaarawy, VP of Commercial Affairs at Paragon Developments. In this interview, he shares how PARAGON is creating smarter, more sustainable workspaces and why the model is ready to scale beyond Egypt.

What workspace features do startups value most today, and how does WORK IN deliver on them?

Today’s startups and SMEs prioritize flexibility, scalability, operational efficiency, and access to value-added services—and WORK IN at PARAGON.3 was purposefully designed to meet these needs. Located in a prime spot in the heart of the New Administrative Capital’s Financial District—directly facing the Presidential Palace—WORK IN delivers more than just office space; it offers a fully integrated, future-ready regenerative space that embodies PARAGON’s core pillars: Design, Community, Innovation, and Sustainability. 

Paragon adopts a ready-to-operate model that eliminates barriers

Understanding the challenges startups face—such as limited resources, setup delays, and operational complexities—we created a ready-to-operate model that eliminates these barriers. WORK IN offers a range of smart, fully serviced office spaces between 15 and 50 square meters, allowing businesses to scale seamlessly as they grow. Each unit is supported by high-speed internet, reception services, printing facilities, relaxation lounges, and concierge assistance, all within a professional and adaptable setting.

What truly sets WORK IN apart is the comprehensive ecosystem built around it. Clients gain access to marketing, legal, and accounting services, giving them a competitive edge and allowing them to focus solely on growth. In addition, of course, to PARAGON HUB, which offers dynamic spaces for meetups, events, and endless networking opportunities.—empowering them to focus on growth while we handle the rest.

By integrating smart design, operational support, and community-building features, WORK IN is not only redefining modern workspaces—it’s shaping the future of professional environments in Egypt, fostering innovation, collaboration, and long-term business success.

What operational challenges did you overcome in launching a smart & sustainable workspace model? 

Launching a smart workspace model like WORK IN required overcoming a range of operational challenges, particularly within Egypt’s regulatory and infrastructure landscape. Implementing an intelligent, tech-integrated environment meant aligning multiple systems—from IoT-enabled sensors and centralized Building Management Systems (BMS) to user-facing mobile applications that enhance accessibility and control. Ensuring these technologies worked seamlessly required close collaboration with tech partners, construction teams, and regulatory bodies, all while maintaining our high standards of functionality, comfort, and sustainability.

At PARAGON, we turned these challenges into opportunities to innovate. By embedding sustainability and smart systems into every stage of development, we’ve created regenerative workspaces that not only meet global efficiency standards but are also tailored to the Egyptian context. Our strategic partnership with Schneider Electric has enabled us to deploy advanced energy-saving technologies that support occupant well-being while significantly reducing environmental impact. Today, all PARAGON buildings are LEED-accredited, and PARAGON 1 proudly holds a SmartScore Certificate, making it one of Egypt’s first truly smart and sustainable office buildings.

How does PARAGON HUB go beyond the workspace to create real growth opportunities for startups and SMEs?

PARAGON HUB goes far beyond the traditional workspace by serving as a growth platform and dynamic ecosystem for startups and SMEs. At its very core is the PARAGON Hub Physical Facility—a vibrant social space that brings people together beyond their office walls. It redefines the modern mixed-use workspace by creating a community-centered environment where collaboration, networking, and innovation intersect seamlessly across all PARAGON buildings.

More than just infrastructure, PARAGON HUB fosters a culture of connection and growth. Through curated events, mentorship opportunities, and knowledge-sharing sessions, it empowers members to build meaningful relationships and gain real insights that drive success. By blending physical space with business enablement, PARAGON HUB becomes not just where work happens, but where growth is made possible.

Do you see potential for a WORK IN-style model in Saudi Arabia’s growing startup hubs like Riyadh or NEOM? 

Saudi Arabia’s rapidly evolving urban landscape—particularly in innovation-driven hubs like Riyadh and NEOM—presents a strong opportunity for exporting the WORK IN model. These cities are fostering a new generation of entrepreneurs who require agile, tech-enabled, and fully serviced workspaces that support rapid growth. That’s exactly what WORK IN delivers.

Our core values align well with KSA’s national focus on digital transformation, sustainability, and economic diversification. With its emphasis on flexibility, smart infrastructure, and integrated support services, the model is well-suited to meet the needs of fast-scaling startups in the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia’s national focus on digital transformation, sustainability, and economic diversification aligns closely with PARAGON’s core values: Design, Community, Innovation, and Sustainability.

We see strong potential to replicate and tailor WORK IN to the Saudi market—leveraging its scalable framework to contribute meaningfully to the Kingdom’s startup ecosystem while supporting its broader vision for future-ready, smart urban development.

With Paragon’s strong global sales, is Saudi Arabia part of your regional expansion plans?

Our expansion into Saudi Arabia and other Arab markets is a strategic step in PARAGON’s journey to become a regional leader in smart, sustainable development. These markets offer tremendous opportunities, especially in Saudi Arabia, where Vision 2030 is accelerating demand for innovative and integrated real estate solutions. There’s a growing appetite for high-performance, community-centered spaces that support economic growth and diversification.

We aim to complete 360,000 sqm of integrated mixed-use developments in Saudi Arabia

Looking ahead, Paragon is preparing to expand its footprint in Saudi Arabia by targeting the development and management of 200,000 sqm of office space by 2027, to reach 500,000 sqm by 2030 across key cities like Riyadh and Jeddah.

By 2030, we aim to complete six development projects totaling 360,000 sqm of BUA, encompassing a diverse mix of medium-rise standalone offices and integrated mixed-use developments that blend workspace with retail and hospitality components. On the property management front, we plan to oversee 140,000 sqm across six projects, focusing on operational excellence, tenant satisfaction, and long-term asset value, offering flexible rental models tailored to market needs. While we target six projects per category, our development approach remains agile, adapting the number of projects as needed to meet BUA targets and optimize investment returns.

Paragon has integrated EV charging into its developments. How does this support Egypt’s clean mobility goals and broader sustainability strategy?

Paragon’s integration of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure directly supports Egypt’s clean mobility goals as outlined in the National Climate Change Strategy 2050. This national strategy aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across sectors, including transportation, and promote the shift toward more sustainable, energy-efficient mobility solutions.

By embedding smart, accessible EV charging stations within its developments, Paragon is helping to lay the groundwork for an electric mobility ecosystem in Egypt. These efforts not only encourage EV adoption among residents and businesses but also demonstrate how private sector leadership can complement national sustainability initiatives.

Paragon’s approach aligns with the country’s long-term vision of reducing fuel dependency, minimizing environmental impact, and modernizing infrastructure through innovative, technology-driven solutions—positioning its projects as forward-thinking models for Egypt’s low-carbon future.

How do you envision the ideal workplace of the future in cities like Cairo?

The ideal workplace of the future in cities like Cairo is one that seamlessly blends technology, sustainability, and human-centric design to meet the evolving needs of a modern workforce. In a fast-paced, urban environment, professionals increasingly seek more than just a desk—they want dynamic spaces that enhance productivity, support well-being, and foster collaboration and innovation.

Our partnerships with global leaders like Schneider Electric, Signify, and Planon allow us to deliver intelligent ecosystems that support cognitive performance.

At PARAGON, this vision is already being realized. We believe the future of work lies in environments that prioritize people over physical structures. That’s why our developments are intentionally designed to deliver more than functionality—they’re built to empower users, stimulate creativity, and promote sustainable growth.

By integrating smart technologies such as IoT-enabled systems, advanced climate control, intelligent lighting, and user-customizable workstations, PARAGON creates interactive, responsive environments that adapt to how people actually work. Our partnerships with global leaders like Schneider Electric, Signify, and Planon allow us to deliver intelligent ecosystems that optimize energy use, improve air quality, enhance comfort, and actively support cognitive performance.

Sustainability is also a core component of the workplace of the future. PARAGON buildings are designed with eco-conscious infrastructure and certified green standards, including LEED and SmartScore certifications, ensuring long-term environmental responsibility and operational efficiency. Through features like biophilic design, better acoustics, and natural lighting, we improve both the mental and physical health of our occupants.

Ultimately, the workplace of the future must be adaptable, sustainable, and centered around the user experience. At PARAGON, we’re not just imagining that future—we’re building it. Our developments offer a blueprint for what smart, human-centric workplaces should look like in Egypt’s cities as they continue to grow and modernize.

Finally, what one piece of advice would you offer to real estate developers aiming to support entrepreneurship in Egypt?

My advice would be to design spaces that go far beyond physical infrastructure. In Egypt’s dynamic and fast-evolving entrepreneurial landscape, developers have a unique opportunity to create environments that actively support innovation and business growth. It’s not just about offering a desk or an office—it’s about building a community where entrepreneurs can connect, collaborate, and thrive.

Startups flourish in ecosystems where ideas are shared, partnerships are formed, and support systems are in place. By offering flexible, scalable, and tech-enabled workspaces that adapt to different stages of business growth, developers can empower startups to focus on what really matters: building and scaling their ideas. At the same time, integrating sustainability into these developments helps future-proof their operations and aligns with broader environmental goals.

The WORK IN model at PARAGON can truly drive impact in Egypt’s startup ecosystem

But equally important are the intangible resources—access to mentorship, business development services, and meaningful networking opportunities. These elements are critical in helping entrepreneurs navigate challenges and accelerate their journey to success. This holistic, human-centric approach is what we’ve built into the WORK IN model at PARAGON, and it’s a framework that can truly drive impact in Egypt’s startup ecosystem.

Kholoud Hussein 

Launched in April 2016 under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and King Salman, Vision 2030 has reshaped Saudi Arabia’s economy, society, and international positioning. As of early 2025, the Kingdom has already surpassed many of its key targets:

• 93% of its nearly 400 third-level KPIs have been fully or partially met. 
• Over 85% of its 1,500+ strategic initiatives have been completed or are on track.

The non-oil economy now contributes around 45–50% of GDP, tourism visitor numbers have already exceeded 100 million annually, and female labour-force participation has reached ~33%—beating the 30% goal.

However, with 2030 deadlines looming, attention is turning to the next chapter: What lies beyond Vision 2030?

1. Why Saudi Arabia Must Look Beyond 2030

A. Surpassing the Finish Line, Not Crossing It

With high-level projects nearing completion (NEOM, the Red Sea resorts, Diriyah Gate) and many social reforms embedded in the system, Saudi Arabia now faces the question: How to sustain and build on this progress?

A recent Stratfor analysis addresses this: “As the finish line for Vision 2030 approaches... Saudi Arabia is paring back its ambitious megacity NEOM… focusing on successful reforms that have strengthened its diversification away from oil.”

This isn't abandonment, but rather a strategic reorientation: embed gains and recalibrate the most significant initiatives to ensure their viability.

B. Global Shocks and Domestic Realities

Geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices still shape the economic environment. Although non-oil growth has been robust (with real GDP growth projections of 4–4.6% in 2024–25), continued resilience requires adaptive economic and social frameworks beyond 2030.

2. Emerging Pillars of the Post-2030 Strategy

A. Institutionalizing Sustainability & Governance

Saudi authorities have prioritized sustainability and transparency—not merely through grand visions, but via process. The Saudi Green Initiative (massive afforestation, emissions cuts) is poised to continue as an ongoing environmental policy beyond 2030. Likewise, improvements in e-governance, fiscal discipline, and public-sector accountability (pillars of “Ambitious Nation”) are now being entrenched in long-term reforms.

B. Deepening Economic Diversification

• Manufacturing & Industry: Efforts to localize oil sector value-added (from 40% to 75%) signal broader industrial policy that must continue beyond 2030.
• Finance & Capital Markets: The Financial Sector Development Program, launched under Vision 2030, aims to reinforce Saudi Arabia as a global financial hub—a task set to continue in the next decade.
• Renewable Energy & Green Tech: From Sakaka solar and Dumat al Jandal wind farms, the next step involves scaling hydrogen, green ammonia, carbon capture, and R&D tied to the Supreme Committee on RDI.

C. Human Capital & Innovation

Efforts to elevate Saudis in STEM, entrepreneurship, and global competitiveness reflect a shift from infrastructure-focused investment to talent-driven transformation. The Kingdom aims to channel 2.5% of GDP into research by 2040. Saudi universities and incubators (e.g., KAUST, SDAIA) are already positioned as keystones for this ambition.

3. Voices from the Kingdom

Busra Karacadag, OBG’s Country Director, framed the broader narrative: “This report captures Saudi Arabia’s bold strides in diversification, sustainability and global collaboration. Vision 2030 is a testament to the Kingdom’s resilience and capacity to lead on the international stage.” 

While Oliver Cornock, OBG’s Editor-in-Chief, conveyed: “Saudi Arabia’s focus on innovation and long‑term economic planning is helping to create a dynamic, future‑ready economy.” 

Both underscore that the real test will be maintaining this momentum after the headline-making projects conclude.

Similarly, Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Minister of Tourism, and Fahad bin Abdurrahman Al-Jalajel, Minister of Health, emphasize infrastructure-led sustainability. Their stewardship is shaping a post-2030 environment grounded in healthcare resiliency, affordable housing, and tourism capacity, not just new investments.

4. Post-2030 Scenarios: What Could Come Next?

A. Transitioning to Vision 2040 or Vision 2050?

Given the success and nearing sunset of Vision 2030, it’s likely the Kingdom will launch a successor strategic framework—tentatively called Vision 2040 or Vision 2050—aimed at embedding earlier gains and tackling residual structural vulnerabilities.

Key areas:

1. Industrial Upgradation: Shift from manufacturing assembly to high-value, tech‑enabled production; e.g., smart vehicles, biotech, pharmaceuticals.
2. Energy Transition: From solar/wind to hydrogen-exporting, carbon-negative energy ecosystems.
3. Financial Ecosystem: Expansion through FinTech innovation, Islamic finance, and integration with global capital flows.
4. Human Sciences and Culture: Zoom in on R&D capacity, cultural exports, tourism beyond mega-sites.

B. Governance as Strategy

Saudi Arabia’s leap from wholesale reform to institutional maturity implies post‑2030 governance models with decentralized accountability, data-driven policymaking, community engagement, and digital transparency—all sustained through refreshed bureaucratic capabilities.

C. Global Engagement and Soft Power

Already during its G20 presidency and sporting diplomacy, Saudi Arabia has used culture and commerce to amplify its global voice. Post-2030 plans will likely expand on educational exchanges, cultural IP exports, Saudi-backed global universities, and multilateral peace/sustainability agendas.

5. Risks and Challenges Ahead

Despite its achievements, the Kingdom faces real challenges:

• Megaproject Sustainability: Scaling back NEOM or similar projects could disappoint investors, thus requiring recalibrated expectations and management frameworks.
• Oil Dependency Residuals: While non-oil GDP has grown, oil exports still finance public services and deficits. External shocks remain a key vulnerability.
• Youth Expectations and Social Balance: A young, digitally-native population demands further widening liberties, robust social contracts, and inclusive civic platforms.

The next strategic blueprint must squarely address these through economic resilience, a balanced social compact, and long-tail institutional endurance.

6. Blueprint for a Post-2030 Saudi Arabia

Here is a thematic breakdown of what Vision 2040 (tentative) might entail:

From Vision to Legacy

Vision 2030 has already reshaped Saudi Arabia’s economic structure, societal values, global posture, and timeline. As 2030 approaches, the Kingdom's challenge shifts from execution to sustainability, adaptation, and continuous renewal. A successor strategy—Vision 2040 or Vision 2050—will likely carry forward this spirit, reinforcing resilience, institutional maturity, and global soft power.

The next Saudi decade must reconcile grand transformation with durable governance. Will its institutions mature enough to absorb this change? Will its citizens sustain this reform?

In the following years, Riyadh must answer these fundamental questions. The success of Vision 2030 opens this critical chapter, and the real test now lies after the finish line.